The Compound: Stock Analyses & Picks

The speaker is bullish on Nvidia, viewing it as a 'blue chip survivor' due to its CUDA software platform, which forms the bedrock of the AI ecosystem. He likens CEO Jensen Huang to 'the Walmart of compute,' constantly driving down costs and providing better value and quantity. Despite recent stock performance, he sees it transitioning to a blue-chip investor base with strong fundamentals like dividends, buybacks, and cash flow, making it a long-term hold.

“My thesis is if is that Nvidia is a blue chip survivor because of CUDA because of the software they are there's nothing more motivated than a founder who used to be in a commodity business which he was when he was just selling GPUs to you know game players right then wow now I can control an ecosystem right so he did a deal on inference he's doing a deal everywhere in the universe to be and and you know the analogy I look at is IB BM, right?” — ▶ 41:40

The upcoming SpaceX IPO is unusual due to its fixed price issuance of $135 per share, bypassing traditional price discovery. This means retail investors will largely determine the day-one valuation, which is already considered a stretch at $1.8 trillion. Additionally, lockup periods for insiders are shorter than usual, potentially leading to significant stock supply hitting the market after Q2 and Q3 earnings, which could create volatility and balance out index demand.

“This is a very odd deal and it's a fixed price issuance. It's $135 a share. It's not an typically speaking when you market an IPO, and I marketed a ton of IPOs in the '90s. You go around, you visit institutional investors, you gauge their interest, you build a book, the bankers look at the book and say, "Okay, we think the price should be X." The company says okay and off you go. Here the company has said it is $135 a share at 1.8 trillion 1.7.” — ▶ 00:18:00

The speaker believes that memory companies like Micron lack a competitive moat, making them vulnerable. Their current high profits are primarily due to price increases rather than technological innovation or added value, which is unsustainable. He predicts Micron will not be among the top five S&P 500 earnings contributors in the next 24 months to 5 years.

“I don't think these memory companies have a competitive mode.” — ▶ 40:00

The sponsor, Wisdom Tree, suggests that Japan is entering a new era due to corporate reforms and stronger shareholder policies, which have attracted investors like Warren Buffett. The OPPJ ETF is designed to invest in Japanese companies that are expected to benefit from these macroeconomic policies, industrial innovation, and shifts in trade and consumer behavior.

“Wisdom Tree believes Japan is entering a new era. Corporate reforms and stronger shareholder policies are changing the game and investors like Warren Buffett have taken notice. The Wisdom Tree Japan Opportunities Fund, ticker is OPPJ, is designed to invest in Japanese companies positioned to benefit from macroeconomic policies, industrial innovation, and shifts in trade and consumer behavior.” — ▶ 00:00:10

The speaker owns shares of Toast and appreciates its technology for streamlining the restaurant checkout process. He believes the company's solution addresses a common pain point for diners, making it a valuable investment.

“I'm I'm own shares of the stock, but like can I have a check? Yes. Here it is right here. I have the control. I just want to press a button. Literally the last fork full. I want to drop the fork and walk out of the restaurant.” — ▶ 3:00