Should I Buy AMD (AMD)? — Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber asserts that AMD's current run is far from over, anticipating 'shock and awe' guidance in the next two quarters. He believes that while the market currently acknowledges AMD's improved prospects, concrete numbers and conservative guidance from CEO Lisa Su will lead to significant upward re-evaluation, similar to Nvidia's past performance.

“I think what we're going to end up having with AMD is two straight quarters with shock and laws this next quarter where they're going to talk about the guidance and the following quarter guidance and I think people are going to be like get their flapjacks flipped and then Wall Street's going to be like what is going on with AMD.” — ▶ 35:30

The YouTuber believes AMD's revenue and earnings per share will accelerate rapidly, far exceeding conservative analyst expectations due to strong GPU and CPU demand and expanding margins. He anticipates analysts will be forced to significantly raise price targets, potentially pushing the stock to $1,000+ this year or next, creating a 'perfect storm' for growth.

“AMD stock could hit $1,000 this year or next. I've been talking about this for a while now at this point in time. Right? The thing with AMD stock is the numbers are going to accelerate so rapidly.” — ▶ 10:00

The YouTuber is highly bullish on AMD, citing two massive fundamental changes: the shift from training to inference in AI workloads, where AMD offers better ROI chips, and a dramatically higher CPU demand. He believes these changes will lead to multi-year benefits and a significant increase in AMD's GPU business, potentially driving the stock to $1000+ sooner than expected. Recent news of the CEO meeting with a high-ranking Chinese official also suggests potential thawing of export curbs, opening up a massive market opportunity for AMD.

“I would not be shocked if AMD runs to a,000 plus this year or next year. Even though I don't have it going to,000 plus till 2029 or 2030. I think it could actually make that run way earlier because people are going to price it in, right?” — ▶ 13:00

The YouTuber is building a position in AMD via a savings plan, seeing it as the primary alternative to Nvidia in AI data centers. Tech giants are seeking to reduce dependence on Nvidia, driving demand for AMD's chips and integrated systems like Helios, which offer up to 40% cost advantage for AI applications. Despite a forward P/E of 37, an expected 46% annual earnings growth leads to a PEG ratio under 1, indicating undervaluation.

“Ich sehe AMD langfristig sehr gut positioniert und ich baue aktuell meine Position in AMD jeden Monat über einen Sparplan weiter aus.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber holds AMD, stating it contributes positively to their portfolio's performance. They also mention it as one of the stocks they invest in monthly via a savings plan, indicating continued accumulation.

“Auch ASML, Newbank und AMD tragen positiv zur Performance bei.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber sees AMD as a strong competitor to Nvidia in processors and graphics chips, offering powerful yet more affordable alternatives. He expects AMD to gain market share in high-performance GPUs, citing its 31% revenue growth in the last quarter. While acknowledging lower operating margins compared to Nvidia, he plans to expand his position when the opportunity arises, having recently initiated a position.

“Ich bin erst vor wenigen Monaten eine Position in AMD eingegangen, nachdem ich die Aktie hier auf diesem Kanal vorgestellt habe. Ich würde meine Position aber bei Gelegenheit weiter ausbauen.” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst is currently short AMD, having taken initial profits. They expect a further correction (Wave 4) but anticipate a subsequent long opportunity (Wave 5) with 50-70% upside, indicating this is not a final top for AMD.

“Wir werden also sobald die Schwelle von 447$ erreicht ist, automatisch 50% der Position rausnehmen. Gewinne realisieren, um dann im Anschluss die restliche Position weiterlaufen zu lassen.” — ▶ 14:00

Following the current short-term correction (Wave 4), the analyst plans to establish a long position in AMD. They expect a final upward movement (Wave 5) with 50-70% upside potential, as they do not believe this is the ultimate top for the stock.

“Wir wollen mittelfristig eine weitere Long Zone hinterlegen, sobald die vier abgeschlossen ist, um dann noch mal die letzten Käufe zu tätigen, um hier hochzukommen.” — ▶ 14:50

The YouTuber cites AMD as a prime example of a fundamentally strong company that experienced a significant downturn despite good earnings, causing many investors to panic sell. He emphasizes that those who understood the company and held or bought more during the dip are now 'fat in profit,' illustrating the importance of conviction in strong fundamentals during market volatility.

“Ein gutes Beispiel ist AMD, ne, wo viele von euch mir auch geschrieben haben, dass sie aufgrund von meinen Analysen da sehr sehr fett im Plus sind, ne, wo wir festgestellt haben, Leute, das Ding ist fundamental sehr sehr stark, braucht man braucht sich eben keine Sorgen machen.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber suggests avoiding AMD at its current valuation, noting that while the company has strong fundamentals and growth prospects driven by AI, its current Forward PE Ratio of 50 indicates it is no longer cheap. He believes that while it will still deliver good long-term returns, it won't offer the disproportionate gains seen when it was undervalued. He anticipates potential pullbacks or consolidation due to the high valuation.

“Jetzt aktuell ist AMD definitiv nicht günstig. Es wird trotzdem langfristig meiner Ansicht nach auch gute Renditen abwerfen, aber nicht mehr diese überproportionalen, wie es jetzt der Fall ist, ne?” — ▶ 16:00

The YouTuber advises holding AMD, noting its significant recent gains and emphasizing the importance of riding momentum with winning stocks. He mentions its strong performance, being up 18.5% on the day.

“AMD took the off. Okay, sitting at $41,550, up $18.5% on the day alone.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber suggests AMD as another stock to consider, stating he has been 'pounding the table' on it. While not providing specific new reasons, he implies it's a known strong performer.

“AMD is another one. Okay, I've been pounding the table on a few of these, so some of this won't be new to you, but I need you to understand where you need to be.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber took profits on AMD, selling around 56% of their position. They acknowledge it could go higher but are content with current returns and maintain some exposure.

“They'll also take around 56% of profit from AMD because AMD is now $53 per share. Can it go higher? Of course it can, which is why I'm still exposed to that name.” — ▶ 00:50