Should I Buy Shopify (SHOP)? — Finance YouTuber Analysis

The analyst believes Shopify's recent earnings report was stronger than the market reaction suggests, with revenue growth exceeding estimates and expanding operating margins. Key metrics like Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and Gross Payment Volume (GPV) are accelerating, and the attach rate is increasing. A reverse discounted cash flow analysis indicates that the current stock price is justified by a reasonable 19% annual revenue growth over the next decade, which the analyst believes is achievable given conservative management guidance and upward-revising analyst estimates.

“All these things combined point to a pretty solid picture for the company, which means that it's something that I'm going to be giving consideration to adding shares in my own portfolio.” — ▶ 14:00

The YouTuber is bullish on Shopify, viewing it as the backbone of millions of online businesses with a massive runway for growth in the e-commerce market. He points to its strong revenue and GMV growth, recurring revenue model, and its strategic positioning to benefit from social commerce and the creator economy. He also notes AI's role in lowering barriers for new online businesses, which will further drive merchant adoption. Despite recent weak performance, he believes the stock is attractive and will reach $130 within 12 months.

“What's nice about the stock is that it's down and it has had really weak performance recently. The stock is attractive and I believe it will be $130 per share stock in the next 12 months.” — ▶ 23:50

The YouTuber is considering buying Shopify, praising its world-class management and its ability to leverage AI to improve its platform and user experience. They highlight its consistently strong GMV growth and believe it has a large total addressable market, with potential to become a $500 billion company in the future. They note it's 'less expensive' now, though not undervalued.

“Lastly, and that's Shopify. Now, I've covered Shopify not that long ago, so I won't really spend that much time here.” — ▶ 15:00

The YouTuber holds Shopify, which has quickly become a top-five position with 77% gains. They note its role in enabling millions of merchants to build online shops, indicating strong market relevance and growth potential.

“Shopify habe ich noch gar nicht so lange im Depot, aber mittlerweile gehört diese Aktie auch bereit zu meinen Top fünf Positionen. Shopify ermöglich ist Millionen von Händlern ihre eigenen Onlineshops aufzubauen. Hier beträgt der Kursgewinn bereits 77%.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber believes the negative narrative around Shopify, particularly regarding AI disruption, is overblown. He argues that Shopify can integrate AI and that its platform offers complex functionalities like payment processing and legal frameworks that AI alone cannot easily replicate. He sees the stock as potentially undervalued, but advises further due diligence on its growth drivers.

“There's definitely some interesting things going on right now with Shopify and I believe the narrative, more importantly, against Shopify is way overblown.” — ▶ 6:00

The YouTuber identifies Shopify as a consumer discretionary stock poised for a significant run. He believes that once the current semiconductor stock frenzy subsides, capital will flow into undervalued consumer discretionary names, leading to an '18 to 24-month insane bull run'.

“Shopify, 35% down year to date. The run's going to be insane.” — ▶ 44:30