The analyst calculates Caterpillar's fair value at $238 per share, making it currently overvalued at $332. Beyond valuation, a significant concern is the potential for Cat Financial, a subsidiary, to become too large and problematic, similar to GE Financial's issues during the financial crisis, despite no current evidence of malfeasance. This potential risk, combined with the current overvaluation, leads to an avoid recommendation.
“for me on a personal basis I'm going to not going to add cat Financial I mean cat not cat Financial cater biller to my Investment Portfolio I'm not even going to add this one to my Bullpen because I think that there are too many good opportunities out there” — ▶ 10:00