Should I Buy E.L.F. Beauty (ELF)? — Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber is highly bullish on ELF Beauty, stating it is oversold and has shown strong support around the $50 level. He projects the stock could reach $90 quickly within the next 6-12 months due to its strong revenue, margin, and EPS trajectory, and believes it's a $200+ stock long-term. He emphasizes that long-term investors will continue to buy aggressively up to $100.

“ELF long-term is a $200 plus dollar stock in my opinion based upon where I see the revenues going, the margins going, and the earnings per share going over the next several years, the stock will go back to 200 plus. But if we're talking about the shorter term, over the next 6 to 12 months, I think the stock can rise to $90 pretty darn quickly.” — ▶ 31:40

The YouTuber expresses high conviction in Elf Beauty, calling it his favorite stock to buy for the next 4-5 years. He highlights its affordable, high-quality products, 29 consecutive quarters of sales growth, and strong market share gains. He also points to the success of its brands like Road (led by Hailey Bieber) and Notorium, and projects a 30-50% compounded annual growth rate based on conservative revenue and net income growth estimates.

“This is why I'm so excited about this makeup and beauty company, right? It's not just that it's produced me a 600% return since I invested in it. It's not just that the stock is down a ton from its all-time high, which it alltime high was over 200. It's that I look at the numbers, I run my projections, and I'm like, this is going to be a stock that, in my opinion, produces me a compounding annual growth rate somewhere between 30 and into the 50% range over the next four to 5 years.” — ▶ 17:00

The YouTuber identifies Elf Beauty as a consumer discretionary stock poised for a significant run. He believes that once the current semiconductor stock frenzy subsides, capital will flow into undervalued consumer discretionary names, leading to an '18 to 24-month insane bull run'.

“Elf Beauty down 29% year-to date. the run these stocks are going to go, it's going to be, you got to keep in mind, it's not going to be like just a few weeks or a few months. It's going to be an 18 to 24month insane bull run in all these stocks that aren't really like you have to have them.” — ▶ 42:20

The YouTuber sees ELF Beauty as an incredible long-term opportunity, especially after its stock price dropped to $50, which he considers a 'steel deal.' He highlights the company's consistent revenue beats despite conservative guidance, strong innovation pipeline not yet factored into outlook, and a highly competent CEO. He projects ELF to be a $200+ stock by 2030, driven by strong revenue and net income growth, and believes the current valuation significantly undervalues its long-term potential.

“Anything under $100 is a steel deal. 50 bucks. Like, dude, that's why I went ahead and bought $70,000 today.” — ▶ 27:50

The YouTuber is highly enthusiastic about E.L.F. Beauty, highlighting its successful mass-market cosmetics brand and growth engines like Road Cosmetics and international expansion. His base case projects 15% revenue growth and 20% net income growth, leading to a 40%+ compound annual growth rate. He argues that even in a bear case, the stock should outperform the S&P 500, making it a 'huge buy.'

“Elf Beauty slapping my hand on the table. It's a buy.” — ▶ 34:50

The YouTuber believes ELF Beauty is currently an 'ultra hated' stock, trading at $55, but will become a 'loved' stock within the next one to two years. He projects substantial gains, potentially reaching $125 to $175, as consumer names are expected to bottom and then rally.

“I mean, it's down 9% here today. No one cares about the stock. Um, I think it'll be a love stock over the next year or two, right?” — ▶ 26:00