Brian Stoffel: Stock Analyses & Picks

The YouTuber is bullish on Axon, highlighting 34% top-line growth and expanding operating margins. He emphasizes the company's strong recurring revenue from software solutions and future contracted bookings, indicating a widening moat. A reverse discounted cash flow analysis suggests the current stock price implies a revenue growth rate (17% over 10 years) that is significantly lower than historical and expected future growth.

“I actually think that's a pretty good deal.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber argues that Axon stock is now attractive after a 35% drop, which has lowered the required revenue growth rate to justify its price. He uses a reverse discounted cash flow analysis, noting that the company's historical growth and analyst estimate revisions suggest it can easily meet the new, lower growth targets. He believes the current price offers a good entry point for long-term investors.

“So, I actually think this is now a very attractive stock to hold and own.” — ▶ 04:00

The YouTuber is bullish on MercadoLibre, noting 49% revenue growth driven by both e-commerce and fintech segments. He argues that the company is making strategic investments in logistics and credit, which are causing short-term margin pressure but are crucial for long-term moat expansion. A reverse discounted cash flow analysis indicates the stock is significantly undervalued, as it only requires 4% annual revenue growth to justify its current price, far below its historical and projected growth rates.

“Clearly there's a disconnect there. So I think this as well is very much a stock that is worth owning.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber is bullish on Sea Limited, citing strong revenue growth (47% YoY) driven by e-commerce and fintech, and an expanding moat in logistics to counter TikTok Shop. He believes the stock is undervalued based on forward P/E and a reverse discounted cash flow analysis, which suggests very low future growth is priced in despite current high growth rates.

“This is a very very cheap stock.” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst believes Cava's current valuation is reasonable given its strong growth trajectory. He highlights impressive comparable store sales growth driven by increased traffic, expanding restaurant-level profit margins, and a clear path to doubling its store count by 2030. A reverse discounted cash flow analysis suggests the current price is justified by a 21% annual revenue growth over the next decade, which he finds achievable given recent performance and analyst expectations.

“I actually think that this valuation is very reasonable given their growth trajectory.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst argues Nvidia's valuation is fair, despite its high growth. He points to its dominant market position in GPUs and CUDA software, leading to exceptional pricing power and expanding gross margins. While acknowledging the cyclical nature of the chip industry and increasing competition, he believes the demand for AI chips is so vast that Nvidia's growth will continue. A reverse discounted cash flow analysis, using conservative free cash flow margins, suggests a 21% annual growth rate is needed to justify the current price, which he believes is achievable given the company's current and projected revenue growth, and historical underestimation by analysts.

“In my in my opinion, there is no question that the moat is stable or widening around the company even with all the competition entering and that the thesis is very much on track.” — ▶ 36:40

The analyst believes Shopify's recent earnings report was stronger than the market reaction suggests, with revenue growth exceeding estimates and expanding operating margins. Key metrics like Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and Gross Payment Volume (GPV) are accelerating, and the attach rate is increasing. A reverse discounted cash flow analysis indicates that the current stock price is justified by a reasonable 19% annual revenue growth over the next decade, which the analyst believes is achievable given conservative management guidance and upward-revising analyst estimates.

“All these things combined point to a pretty solid picture for the company, which means that it's something that I'm going to be giving consideration to adding shares in my own portfolio.” — ▶ 14:00

The analyst believes Transmedics, despite recent earnings misses and margin pressure, presents a compelling long-term buying opportunity. The company is investing heavily in R&D for new organ solutions (heart, lung, kidney) and expanding internationally. While current valuation is based on future growth and approvals, a blended valuation model suggests a significant annualized return if the company meets its base case guidance for transplants by 2030, offering a large margin of safety.

“I think that if the company can get the approvals that they're looking for, and if the company can show that those new products are being adopted, then today is going to be a steal of a price to own this company.” — ▶ 20:00

The analyst suggests Snowflake is a buy for long-term investors who believe its revenue growth can remain above 20% annually for the next 10 years. This is based on strong recent earnings, re-accelerating revenue growth driven by new AI products (Coco), and a usage-based model that benefits from increased AI adoption. While the valuation is high, a reverse DCF analysis indicates the current price is justified if growth targets are met, and analysts have historically underestimated its growth.

“If you believe from years 4 through 7, which would really be 2030 to say 2036, if you believe that they can have revenue growth of over 20%, well then today's stock price makes all the sense in the world.” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst is holding his existing position in CrowdStrike, having previously trimmed it due to valuation concerns after a significant run-up. He acknowledges the company's strong Q1 performance, including revenue re-acceleration driven by AI-related cybersecurity demand and improved margins. However, he believes the stock's valuation remains stretched, requiring an aggressive 35% annual revenue growth for 10 years to justify the current price, which is significantly higher than analyst estimates.

“I'm happy with the position where it is. I certainly still think the valuation is still very stretched even though this company is pretty much doing everything right and has a huge tailwind.” — ▶ 13:00

The YouTuber, who previously sold his shares, advises caution on ServiceNow despite seemingly attractive valuation metrics. He highlights concerns about contracting gross margins due to the shift to AI-driven services, which have higher compute costs, and a potential slowdown in organic revenue growth as indicated by current remaining performance obligations (RPO) when excluding acquisitions. He also notes a slight dip in renewal rates and management's potentially misleading guidance.

“Overall, I do think that Service Now seems like a pretty good deal in terms of valuation, but there's a lot of moving pieces here. And I'm not necessarily a Service Now bear. I don't own shares anymore, but when I see bull calls that don't take into consideration the potential loss of that seatbased gross profit and the growth of now assist, which seems great on the surface, but you have to account for the margin compression. Well, then I don't think we're getting the full picture just to be understood completely of where I'm coming from here.” — ▶ Watch clip

The analyst, a current shareholder, is holding Duolingo despite recent earnings showing a significant slowdown in key growth metrics like subscription bookings and daily active users. He notes that while the valuation appears compelling on a reverse discounted cash flow basis, requiring only 5% revenue growth, management's ability to execute a pivot and hit new, lower guidance is questionable. He will be watching constant currency bookings, daily active users, full-year bookings guidance, and total paid users for signs of improvement.

“The bottom line when it comes to Dualingo is the simple fact that clearly it is it is having trouble earning investors respect because they are trying to pivot and whether or not they can pull this off has been called into question. At the same time, the valuation is such that if they can make that pivot, well, then it's going to be a pretty great stock to own. But we haven't seen any definitive signs that they're going to do that yet.” — ▶ 13:50

The analyst suggests avoiding Salesforce despite its attractive valuation due to uncertainty surrounding its ability to transition from a seat-based to a usage-based model. While its Agent Force product is growing, it's not enough to offset the drag from legacy seat-based revenue. The company also took on significant debt for share buybacks, which could be a drag if revenue re-acceleration doesn't materialize quickly. A reverse DCF analysis implies very low future growth expectations are priced in.

“But you better believe that the company can execute and grow Agent Force faster than it loses revenue on its traditional seatbased platform for it to be worth it.” — ▶ Watch clip