Should I Buy Axon (AXON)? — Finance YouTuber Analysis

The YouTuber is bullish on Axon, highlighting 34% top-line growth and expanding operating margins. He emphasizes the company's strong recurring revenue from software solutions and future contracted bookings, indicating a widening moat. A reverse discounted cash flow analysis suggests the current stock price implies a revenue growth rate (17% over 10 years) that is significantly lower than historical and expected future growth.

“I actually think that's a pretty good deal.” — ▶ Watch clip

The YouTuber argues that Axon stock is now attractive after a 35% drop, which has lowered the required revenue growth rate to justify its price. He uses a reverse discounted cash flow analysis, noting that the company's historical growth and analyst estimate revisions suggest it can easily meet the new, lower growth targets. He believes the current price offers a good entry point for long-term investors.

“So, I actually think this is now a very attractive stock to hold and own.” — ▶ 04:00

The YouTuber initiated a new position in Axon, buying 20 shares at around $392, citing its exposure to drones, physical AI, and defense. He highlights its rapid growth, expanding total addressable market, and expected future profitability, despite its premium valuation. He also notes its strong competitive moat through proprietary hardware and government security clearances.

“I bought 20 shares of Axon at 300 and close to $92 per share. Very good timing because the next day the stock went up quite a lot on that drone announcement or report from the US government. And of course, drones is now part of Axon's business.” — ▶ 6:20

The YouTuber is trending towards buying Axon, viewing it as a high-growth company with a near-monopoly in its segments (connected devices and software/services). Despite its current valuation, they believe it's becoming 'less expensive' and offers a good opportunity for long-term investors, especially given its strong revenue growth and increasing software contribution to margins. They also like that it diversifies their portfolio away from existing holdings.

“In my case, yes, it is looking at an Axon, a Reddit, and a Shopify.” — ▶ 06:00

The YouTuber recommends Axon, known for police body cameras and tasers, as a way to gain exposure to the counter-drone theme without pure-play risk. He highlights its acquisition of a counter-drone company and the 300% growth in that division last year, alongside its stable recurring revenue from police departments. Although the stock isn't cheap, its core business provides a solid foundation.

“So, you're getting exposure to the counter drone theme, but you're not taking a pure play risk at it because you know they're going to get that police revenue every single month, right?” — ▶ 18:50